域名频道资讯站经历了2018年春节前后，区块链和币圈甚嚣尘上的热闹，以及近日该圈“领袖”李笑来的真心话大冒险，区块链技术真的就这样一地鸡毛了吗？
看多的人，少了，但好像更坚定了；看空的人，依然看空。
秉承着两个原则：1，对事不对人；2，不熟不说。
这篇译文是关于区块链的，提了一下ICO，值得一读。
关于作者
John Villasenor：UCLA（加大洛杉矶分校）电气工程、公共政策、管理及法律系教授。关注数字技术和公共政策、商业以及法律的交叉影响。
“I’m a strong believer in the potential of blockchain technologies. ”，作者在文章的第一句话，开宗明义，表明立场。
正文
我坚信区块链技术拥有的潜力。网络去中心化的概念比起集权模式更可信，有可能令金融、数字权管理、投票系统、供应链管理和很多其他领域收益。
但是，我也相信并认可主流用户接纳区块链技术还存在障碍。仔细研究这些障碍有助于在新技术接受曲线形成早期对它们进行处理，也有助于在未来建立起欣欣向荣的区块链生态系统。
考虑到这些情况，随着技术发展，以下是我们应该牢记的五个挑战，不分先后：
I’m a strong believer in the potential of blockchain technologies. The concept of providing trust using a distributed network rather than a central authority is compelling and has the potential to bring benefits to finance, digital rights management, voting systems, supply chain management, and many other areas.
But I’m also a believer in the importance of acknowledging the obstacles that could impede mainstream adoption of blockchain technologies. A clear-eyed view of those obstacles will make it easier to address them early in the technology adoption curve, and make it more likely that we’ll end up with a thriving blockchain ecosystem in the future.
With that in mind, here, in no particular order, are five challenges that are important to keep in mind as this technology evolves:
1. 狂热
不夸张地讲，这个领域受到了过多的关注。尽管媒体对区块链技术极尽吹捧，它并不能解决所有的问题。事实上，有足够多的领域，用区块链系统取代现有系统完全不合理。
为什么这至关重要？因为对新兴技术过度期待是有代价的。豪言壮语落空的时候带来的信用损失，会令生态链条上的每一方的日子都不好过，包括那些没有吹牛的区块链创业者，他们非常努力，希望为投资者提供深思熟虑的提案，为市场提供设计良好的产品。
1. Hype
To say there is too much hype around this space would be an understatement. Despite what some of the press around the blockchain has suggested, it is not the solution to all problems. In fact, there are plenty of areas where it would make little sense to replace current systems with blockchain-based systems.
Why does this matter? Because overpromising in relation to an emerging technology has costs. When lofty predictions aren’t realized, the resulting loss of credibility makes it harder for everyone in the ecosystem, including the many blockchain entrepreneurs who are being careful not to overpromise and are working to bring well-thought-out proposals to investors and well-designed products to the market.
2. 区块链可能会变得不可信
通常，区块链被理解成具有绝对的信任度 – 不会被攻击或更改。这个想法有些过于简单了。 首先，区块链不止一个，而是很多。有的比其它的更稳健一些。其次，今日可信不代表明日也是如此。比如，典型的基于proof-of-work的系统（例如比特币）的设计前提是假设没有一方可以控制超过一半的运作权力。
统管区块链的是形成网络的结点。随着时间变化，包括支撑这个系统可信度的关键假设可能不再有效。考虑到区块链技术备受吹捧的就是在需要信用积累领域（比如房产注册或者公司财务）的应用，是否有机制能够保证相关账簿在这么长的时间内稳定不变还要多加思索。 还有，一旦至关重要的区块链无法信任，应该采取什么行动。
2. The potential that a blockchain can lose integrity
It is often implied that “the” blockchain has absolute integrity—that it can’t be compromised or altered. But that’s an oversimplification. First of all, there isn’t only one blockchain. There are lots of blockchains. Some of them are more robust than others. Second, a blockchain that has integrity today could lose that integrity in the future. For example, typical proof-of-work based systems (such as the bitcoin network) are designed under the assumption that no single entity controls more than 50% of the processing power.
The network of nodes that collectively manage a blockchain can evolve over time, including in ways that might mean that one of the key assumptions underpinning the system's integrity no longer holds. Given that blockchain technologies are being advocated for applications (such as registries of property ownership, or corporate recordkeeping) that require integrity spanning years or decades, more thought needs to go into mechanisms aimed at ensuring that the associated ledgers will remain robust over those timescales. And more thought needs to go into what to do if a mission-critical blockchain loses integrity.
3. ICO – 那些仅凭一张纸就拿到千百万投资的ICO们
ICO很流行，它帮助区块链行业拉到资金，避开了传统意义上的通过VC融资的流程和各种麻烦。但是，有些麻烦 – 比如由有意投资的VC进行的细致的尽职调查 – 是提高成功回报不可或缺的一步。
另外一个可能让人担忧的是ICO募集到的资金额度，有时候和公司实际资金需要完全脱节。我在旧金山湾区多年风投的经历告诉我，太多的钱或者太少的钱，都可以扼杀创业公司。当钱太多的时候，公司容易大手大脚。融资过多的公司通常会雇很多人，发展过快，没有足够的调查，花过多的钱购买服务，还有开发产品的时候忘记目标是什么。
一家软件公司不需要几百万才能开发产品，投入市场。一个ICO用几页纸就可以募集几百万的资金，也许短期来看，是创始人值得庆祝的事情。但是，对于那些投资人来说，当水落石出的时候是否值得庆祝就不好说了。
这不意味着所有的ICO都不能投资。但是，这意味着来一剂现实清醒一下还是必要的。即使做了很多尽职调查，很多VC投资的公司都不成功。这个比例在ICO中会更低。它们缺少来自传统融资流程中保驾护航的那些手段。
3. ICOs that raise hundreds of millions of dollars based on little more than a white paper
Initial coin offerings have emerged as a highly popular approach to raise capital in the blockchain space in a way that circumvents many of the hurdles that accompany a more traditional venture capital fundraising process. But some of those hurdles—such as the extensive due diligence process performed by prospective VC investors—play an important role in improving the odds of a successful return on investment.
Another potential concern is the amount of money raised in ICOs, which is sometimes completely decoupled from the actual cash needs of the company. One thing I have learned in many years of doing venture capital work in the San Francisco Bay Area is that too much money can kill a startup just as thoroughly as can too little money. When there is too much money in a startup, financial discipline tends to go out the window. Overfunded companies often hire too many people too fast and without enough diligence, overpay for services, and lose focus when it comes to product development.
A software startup company doesn’t need hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a product and bring it to market. An ICO that brings in hundreds of millions of dollars based on little more than a whitepaper may be a cause for short-term celebration for the company’s founders, but it’s far less clear that people who invested in the ICO are going to have much to celebrate when all is said /span>
That doesn't mean that all ICOs are bad investments. But it means that a dose of realism is in order. Even with all the due diligence that VCs perform, most VC-funded startups don't succeed. Success percentages are going to be even lower with ICOs, which lack many of the guardrails that accompany more traditional fundraising.
4. 监管平衡
过度监管会阻碍创新。但是，对于区块链技术完全不进行监管是不现实的。毕竟，这些技术已经进入了不少领域- 比如转账、签署合同以及发放债券等 – 这些都已经存在法律和监管框架的地方。 这些框架通常都存在了几十年，非常不适应今日的技术现实。因此，区块链生态里的人和立法者及监管者进行对话很重要，这样可以帮助对方更好地理解技术和技术的应用 – 希望这些法律和规章可以被更新，更好地支持创新，而不是阻碍它。
4. Finding the right balance in regulation
Overregulation can impede innovation. But it would be unrealistic to assert that there should be no role at all for regulation in the context of blockchain technologies. After all, those technologies are already being used in ways—such as for moving money, entering into contracts, and issuing securities—that implicate a thicket of existing legal and regulatory frameworks. Those frameworks often date from decades ago, and can be poorly matched to today’s technologies. Thus, it will be important for people in the blockchain ecosystem to engage with legislators and regulators so they can better understand the technology and its applications—and hopefully apply and of services that are built around blockchain technologies. This is because in addition to the “traditional” cybersecurity challenge of adapting to a rapidly changing cyber threat landscape, with blockchain the underlying ecosystem itself is also changing much more rapidly than in other domains. New blockchain systems, services, and approaches are being developed and deployed on a nearly daily basis. For people building cyberdefenses in a blockchain context, this means that they don’t enjoy the same information advantage over cyberattackers that they might have in a more traditional, more stable environment.
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