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为什么越自信的人看起来越有能力? | 双语哈评

为什么越自信的人看起来越有能力? | 双语哈评


这是一种普遍的感觉: 当你忙于做好工作时,其他人的事业似乎进展得更快。这是怎么回事?

 

在许多情况下,答案是你的贡献没有被看到和认可。这种情况发生的一个重要原因是,人们在评估能力方面并不擅长——这是在职场取得成功的一个关键特征——而对能力的认知于成功的重要性不亚于实际能力。

 

但难道不是结果说明一切吗?事实上,它们不会,甚至当一切都是关于数字的时候也不会。想想一个推销员: 他的销售额可能会上升,但可能并非因为他的努力,而可能是由于产品的优良品质或者营销效应最终取得了成果。如果销售额下降,这可能是竞争加剧的结果。

 

通常很难区分业绩的实际驱动因素,包括运气和难度水平起了多大的作用。正因为如此,人们倾向于基于其他因素来评估能力,这意味着要想说服别人相信你的专业知识,仅仅产生结果还不够。说服别人的一个方法是展示你对自己能力的信心。

 

1982年的一项开创性研究探索了信心和能力认知之间的联系。心理学家 Barry Schlenker 和 Mark Leary 要求48个受试者对60个想象中的人的能力(以及其他特征)进行评估,这些人当时正面临网球赛事或期末考试。受试者得到了两个关键的信息: 他们知道想象中的人预测自己的表现会是什么——从非常差到非常好; 然后他们知道了这些人的"实际"表现。在此之后,他们必须对每个想象中的人的能力进行打分。

 

瞧,本人的预测对别人如何感知他们的能力有很大的影响: 观察者认为那些做出乐观预测的人比那些谦逊者更有能力——不管这些预测有多准确,以及他们的实际表现有多好。即便有人做出了乐观的预测但给出了糟糕的结果,他们的能力仍然被认为几乎是那些做出糟糕表现预测的人的两倍。这似乎表明,如果有人问你希望如何表现,你应该给出一个积极的、自信的回答。一个负面的预测可能会让你被认为明显缺乏竞争力——不管你实际上表现得有多好。

 

在过去的几十年里,研究人员仔细研究了展示自信相对于表现谦虚的影响,得出了相当矛盾的结论。但是 Schlenker & Leary 在1982年的研究支持了那些最初的发现。这项研究发现,展示自信确实会产生积极的效果,但只有当它是非比较性的时候。换句话说: 只要不声称别人不称职,表扬自己的能力似乎就没有问题。

 

但是为什么人们认为自信的人更有能力,即使他们的表现并非如此呢?一种解释是,我们倾向于相信别人告诉我们的,并通过选择有利的信息来确认我们的信念。这个术语叫做确认偏差。因此,如果你表现自信,其他人往往会相信你知道自己在说什么,然后他们会过滤那些模棱两可的信息(比如有多少运气可能帮助或伤害了你) ,以维持他们的最初印象。

 

虽然说,明知自己不会有好的表现而假装自信是不明智的,但是过于谦逊可能也不会带来益处。正如我们在 Schlenker & Leary 的研究中所见,人们倾向于放弃表现谦逊者而选择表现自信者,从而通过这样的决定惩罚了前者。谦逊被认为是在规避可能的失败,试图让批评者的帆船无风启航。如果专家本人不相信他或她自己的能力,别人怎么会相信呢?

 

为了让别人相信你的能力,你应该让沟通成为一种习惯,让别人知道你擅长自己的工作——不要对自己的核心能力有任何自我贬低。

 

这并不总是那么容易做到。为了感受到更真实的自信,你可能首先需要说服自己。问问自己: 我擅长什么?到目前为止,我最大的成功是什么?为什么别人要被我领导?我知道的哪些部分他们不知道?如果很难回答这些问题,那么你就遇到了一个困难:就自己拥有哪些专长而言,如果你连自己都说服不了,又如何能说服别人相信呢?

 

“大胆地赞美自己,”哲学家弗朗西斯·培根(Francis Bacon)说,因为正如他说的那样,“事情总是关联的。”如果你想确保自己的成就得到认可,想想上司和同事如何看待你和你的能力。你认为他们对你的能力和专长有很好的了解吗?如果答案是否定的,你能够在完成任务中表现出更多的自信吗?这并不一定意味着要抓住每一个机会表扬自己;相反,它意味着秉持一种乐观的态度。通过对自己的能力展现出更多的自信,你的能力和贡献就能获得更多的认可。


英文原文


It’s a common feeling: while you are busy doing a good job, others seem to be advancing much faster in their careers. What’s going on?

 

The answer in many cases is your contributions are not being seen and recognized. One important reason this happens is that people are simply not great at assessing competence — a crucial trait for succeeding at work — and perceptions of competence are just as important for success as actual competence.

 

But don’t results mostly speak for themselves? They don’t, even when it’s all about numbers. Consider a salesman: his sales may rise, but they could have risen without his effort due to the superior quality of the product or marketing efforts that finally bore fruit. If sales go down, it could have been the result of increasing competition.

 

It’s often difficult to disentangle actual drivers of performance, including how much luck and difficulty level played a role. Because of this, people tend to evaluate competence based on other factors, meaning you have to do more than produce results to convince them of your expertise. One way to do this is by demonstrating confidence in your abilities.

 

A pioneering study from 1982 explored this connection between confidence and perceptions of competence. Psychologists Barry Schlenker and Mark Leary asked 48 subjects to rate the competence (among other characteristics) of 60 imaginary people who were facing a tennis tournament or a class final examination. Subjects received two crucial pieces of information: they learned what the imaginary people predicted their performance to be — from very poor to very good; then they learned the people’s “actual” performance. After that, they had to rate each imaginary person’s competence.

 

Lo and behold, the person’s prediction had a strong influence on how subjects perceived their competence: Observers evaluated those who made optimistic predictions as much more competent than their modest contemporaries — no matter how accurate those predictions were and how well they actually performed. Even with an optimistic forecast and a horrible result, they were still rated as almost twice as competent as those who accurately forecasted their poor performance. This seems to suggest that if someone asks how you expect to perform, you should give a positive, confident response. A negative forecast may lead you to be perceived as distinctly less competent — no matter how well you actually perform.

 

Over the last few decades, researchers have scrutinized the effects of projecting confidence versus modesty, gathering rather contradictory conclusions. But a recent replication of Schlenker & Leary’s 1982 study supported those original findings. This found that projecting confidence does lead to positive effects, but only when it is non-comparative. In other words: praising your competence seems to be fine as long as you do not claim that others are incompetent.

 

But why do people view confident others as more competent, even when their performance suggests otherwise? One explanation is that we have a tendency to believe what we are told, and to confirm our beliefs by selecting information that supports them. The term for this is confirmation bias. So if you project confidence, others tend to believe you know what you’re talking about, and they will then filter ambiguous information (like how much luck may have helped or hurt you) to fit their initial impression.

 

While it’s unwise to project fake confidence when you know you won’t perform well, being too modest likely won’t serve you well either. As we saw in Schlenker & Leary’s study, people tend to penalize humble actors by deciding against them and choosing the confident ones. Modesty is regarded as hedging against possible failure, an attempt to take the wind out of critics’ sails. If the expert doesn’t trust in his or her abilities, how could anyone else?

 

In order to convince others of your abilities, you should make it a habit to communicate that you are good at what you do — without any self-deprecation regarding your core competencies.

 

This doesn’t always come easy. To feel more authentic demonstrating confidence, you may first have to convince yourself. Ask yourself: What am I good at? What was my greatest success so far? Why should others be led by me? What do I know that they don’t? If you have a hard time answering these questions, you have a problem — how should you convince others of your expertise if you aren’t convinced yourself?

 

“Praise yourself daringly,” the philosopher Francis Bacon said, because, as he continued, “something always sticks.” If you want to ensure that your achievements are recognized, think about how your manager and colleagues see you and your abilities. Do you think they have a good sense of your competence and expertise? If not, could you be demonstrating more confidence in your tasks? This doesn’t necessarily mean praising yourself at every opportunity; rather it means projecting an optimistic attitude. By displaying more confidence in your abilities, you set yourself up to be recognized for your competence and your contributions.


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